Implications

Final Thought on Climate Change

So far we seen how climate change can alter leaf litter decomposition through multiple avenues. Factors such as temperature and precipitation can play both direct and indirect roles in affecting litter decay. In addition, certain conditions such as potential plant community shifts make it even more difficult to predict the ultimate effect of climate change on litter decomposition.

Here I've created a diagram which shows the potential interactions between varying conditions of climate change such as temperature rise and precipitation, and the factors which influence leaf litter decomposition rates.

The overall data suggests that future climate change is likely to affect leaf litter decay rates either through direct or indirect means. If this is the case and litter decomposition rates do increase, it would also result in a proportional rise in CO2 that's liberated into the atmosphere by the process of decay. One criticism of this hypothesis might be that a rise in decomposition could also enrich the soil with nutrients resulting in a higher growth rate that could potentially offset the CO2. However, because a rise in temperature increases both CO2 and nutrient mineralization rates disproportionately, the later rising at a lower rate, it's unlikely for increased plant growth to negate the amount of CO2 released by decomposition (Aertes 2006, Rustad 2001).


Although a great deal of research has already been completed on the subject at hand, a complete picture of the magnitude and breadth of interactions between the varying factors does not seem to be present. One factor in particular that requires further research is precipitation. It's well known that future precipitation rates are difficult to determine under the conditions of climate change, however this variable can potentially alter the current expectations of future decomposition rates which are based largely on temperature. As such I must advocate further research in the area of precipitation